Su Chi Questions U.S. Ability to Defend Taiwan
Taipei Forum Press Release, October 6, 2022
Su Chi, chairman of the Taipei Forum Foundation and former secretary-general of the National Security Council, indicated on October 6 that the Acting U.S. Secretary of Defense, several official Pentagon reports, and a number of former senior officials and generals unanimously concluded that the superior military power of Communist China in East Asia, coupled with the geographic distance of American aid to defend Taiwan, makes it difficult to prevent Beijing from presenting a new "fait accompli" in the early stage of the conflict, and that the United States is no longer capable of handling two major regional conflicts simultaneously. Once Taiwan changes its colors, it will be very difficult for the United States to turn the tables militarily and politically.
Will the United States be able to send troops to defend Taiwan against mainland Chinese invasion? Su collected 56 research papers from the U.S. Department of Defense, Congress, former senior officials, key think tanks, and some individual experts and scholars from 2015 to September this year, proving that the United States is "not capable of defending Taiwan.” He indicated that questioning American "inability to protect Taiwan" was first raised in 2015 by the RAND Corporation, a longtime security research firm commissioned by the U.S. government. From 2019 onwards, the alarms from the U.S. government, think tanks, and scholars have become more frequent and the contents are getting more straightforward. And now it seems to be the consensus of American political, academic, and media circles.
Su indicated that in 2000, Taiwan could self-protect itself without the U.S. assistance. In 2008, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was able to conduct firepower strikes against Taiwan, and it could impose a partial blockade in 2015; it was able to conduct cyberattacks against Taiwan and the continental U.S. networks and vital facilities from 2008 to 2015; and the PLA was able to commit forceful attacks against Taiwan in 2018, with the first wave of 25,000 soldiers. The United States began noticing the rise of Communist China’s military power in 2014 and formally declared in 2018 that the United States would rebuild its military with the goal of confronting China and Russia rather than fighting terrorism, but the proceeding has been at a snail pace.
Su stated that in the face of the threat of Chinese Dongfeng missiles and submarine fleets, most of the waters in the western Pacific Ocean have become a no-go area for American ships. If war should break out across the Taiwan Strait, it would be better for American ships to go east rather than west and stay out of the most dangerous waters. The Pentagon's 18 closed-door military simulations showed that if the United States chose to engage the PLA, the U.S. military would be defeated, regardless of the battle scenarios, unless nuclear weapons were employed. He emphasized that the Chinese Dongfeng series of missiles, especially the newest hypersonic missiles, were a great threat to American aircraft carriers. Their high speed, penetrating and destructive power made it very difficult for U.S. carriers to escape. Other American surface ships, air bases, logistics, ports, etc. were so very vulnerable to attack by Chinese missiles and computer networks.
According to Su, if Communist China were to strike, it would most likely do so in a surprise attack, a quick and big one, creating a "fait accompli" in a few days to avoid the mistakes Russia had made in Ukraine. Amphibious landing is an old-school idea. The new thinking is to attack Taiwan from the air with paratroopers or helicopters landing, seize key positions, and then land on Taiwan in full force. The war would be over in a week or two. The shortest term could be "within three days". Even if Taiwan has the "asymmetric warfare capability," it could not stand alone against China. He pointed out that Communist China has installed a very sophisticated C4ISR system in the Pacific. It is the most sophisticated early warning and response system in the world. The United States does not yet have a fully operational C4ISR system in the Pacific.
Su believes that Beijing does not attach much importance to the "cost" of reunifying Taiwan, because Beijing is convinced that the Chinese people are more willing to pay the cost for Taiwan than the American people. China is not afraid that the United States will switch to "strategic clarity" from "strategic ambiguity" because they have already presumed that the United States would make intervention and were all set to defeat the intervention. Su stressed that in the future, there could be accidental friction or armed conflict between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait due to miscalculation, or even Beijing could deliberately create military clashes to exert pressure to resolve political differences between Taiwan and China.
He indicated that the next five or even ten years will be a window of opportunity for the U.S. military to transform itself, as well as a window of opportunity for China to attack Taiwan. The United States is unlikely to complete its counterforce readiness before the 2030s, nor do American allies and partners have the intention to accept large, permanent American bases or forward deployments. To make matters worse, the United States will retire 48 ships and 256 warplanes by 2026, further diminishing its ability to defend Taiwan.
On the other hand, there appears to be a strong consensus within the United States regarding its “One China” policy, but the substance behind it is hollow. In terms of defense investment, the Republicans support it, while the Democrats, including the Biden administration, are less enthusiastic about it. In terms of willingness to use force, neither party dares to really endorse it. Most of the allies would only pay lip service. Very few American allies will be willing to lend a helping hand. Even they would refrain from using their own force and forcefully restrict the use of their military bases by the United States.
Although the United States is still the world's most powerful military, it is no longer able to handle two major regional conflicts at the same time, and can only satisfy one major conflict and take care of several minor conflicts. Once Taiwan changes its colors, it will be very difficult for the United States to turn the tide militarily and politically, people on Taiwan must stay vigilant in this regard, Su said.
From: https://www.taipeiforum.org.tw/article_d.php?lang=tw&tb=16&id=10296